July 29, 2019 | Archer

The Archer (test)

This song might actually be good

Combat, I’m ready for combat
I say I don’t want that, but what if I do? 1
‘Cause cruelty wins in the movies
I’ve got a hundred thrown-out speeches I almost said to you

Easy they come, easy they go
I jump from the train, I ride off alone
I never grew up, it’s getting so old

First NameLast nameColor
PatrickBagleyOrange
MaggieLarkinShade
RyanFraaseYellow
JessicaCiarelliRed 2

 

I’ve been the archer
I’ve been the prey
Who could ever leave me, darling?
But who could stay?
Dark side, I search for your dark side
But what if I’m alright, right, right, right here?

domainmarkervisibilitydurationcurrent status
PoliticalRuptures/divisions among political/military/religious elitesPublic (but can happen behind closed doors)ContinualWhile some elites have rallied, 3 Iran's supreme leader is looking to deflect blame4
PoliticalContinued protests showing dissonance between state policy and societyPublicContinualContinuing,5 though on a smaller scale than in December 2017
PoliticalIran's regional proxies/partners bemoaning their financial situationPublic (but can happen behind closed doors)N/A, but should be increasing since November 2018Hezbollah is facing financial shortages 6 and is relying on donations 7
EconomicOil exports (crude and condensate) well below 1 million barrels per day (BPD)Mostly public (relies on tanker tracking services)At least six monthsU.S. oil export waivers expired May 2019
EconomicSignificant depreciation of the rial relative to the U.S. dollar (at unofficial rate)PublicAt least six monthsMajor depreciation began in first quarter of 2018
EconomicConfirmation that escrow accounts/humanitarian exemptions were/are not used to avoid sanctions and have successfully locked up Iranian revenue and prevented repatriationPrivateN/A, but preferably the entire time this payments system is in effectUnknown
EconomicSignificantly diminishing foreign exchange reservesPrivateN/A, but a downward trend since May 2019Unknown, but likely declining reserves
EconomicNegative Iranian GDP growthPublicA downward trend for at least three to six months since May 2019According to the World Bank, Iran's GDP will contract by 3.8 percent in 20198

And I cut off my nose just to spite my face
Then I hate my reflection for years and years
I wake in the night, I pace like a ghost
The room is on fire, invisible smoke
And all of my heroes die all alone
Help me hold onto you

  1. this is the first footnote source
  2. this is the first footnote https://www.google.com/search?q=basketball
  3. For example, see: “Iranian Lawmakers Wear Guard’s Uniforms As Show Of Support For IRGC,” Radio Farda, April 9, 2019. (https://en.radiofarda.com/a/iranian-lawmakers-wear-guard-s-uniforms-as-show-of-support-for-irgc/29870111.html)
  4. For example, see: Amir Vahdat and Jon Gambrell, “Supreme leader criticizes Iran’s politicians amid US tension,” Associated Press, May 22, 2019. (https://www.apnews.com/6da4cc57a6ad4b50b11b880e29eb216a)
  5. @AlirezaNader, “Anti regime demonstrations in Qom, Iran’s religious center. ‘Death to the dictator,’” Twitter, August 4, 2018. (https://twitter.com/alirezanader/status/1025858903303757825); @AlirezaNader, “#Iranian Foolad factory strikers chant ‘death to this deceptive regime,’” Twitter, November 21, 2018. (https://twitter.com/AlirezaNader/status/1065272535904702464); “Tehran’s Grand Bazaar Protests; Trump’s Iraq Squeeze,” WSJ Podcasts, June 27, 2018. (https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/tehran-grand-bazaar-protests-trump-iran-squeeze/5c74ef13-ec4c-4fb7-a552-f4b331489c3b)
  6. Liz Sly and Suzan Haidamous, “Trump’s sanctions on Iran are hitting Hezbollah, and it hurts,” The Washington Post, May 18, 2019. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/trumps-sanctions-on-iran-are-hitting-hezbollah-hard/2019/05/18/970bc656-5d48-11e9-98d4-844088d135f2_story.html?utm_term=.96f4ae7e8c26); Ben Hubbard, “Iran’s Allies Feel the Pain of American Sanctions,” The New York Times, March 28, 2019. (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/28/world/middleeast/iran-sanctions-arab-allies.html); Joyce Karam, “US envoy Brian Hook: Sanctions are hurting Iran’s $700m support for Hezbollah,” The National (UAE), March 29, 2019. (https://www.thenational.ae/world/the-americas/us-envoy-brian-hook-sanctions-are-hurting-iran-s-700m-support-for-hezbollah-1.840133)
  7. Caleb Weiss, “Yemen’s Houthis fundraise for Hezbollah,” FDD’s Long War Journal, May 29, 2019. (https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2019/05/yemens-houthis-fundraise-for-hezbollah.php)
  8. Dalga Khatinoglu, “World Bank And IMF More Pessimistic About Iran’s Economy,” Radio Farda, April 9, 2019. (https://en.radiofarda.com/a/world-bank-and-imf-more-pessimist-about-iran-s-economy/29870972.html)
Read in Archer

Issues:

Arab Politics Egypt